S&P Global Ratings has cautioned that Ghana’s sovereign credit rating could face downward pressure within the next 12 to 18 months if the country’s fiscal reforms slow or external economic conditions worsen.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!In its latest report, the agency highlighted that any weakening in fiscal discipline leading to larger budget deficits or rising debt servicing costs—could undermine the government’s ability to refinance its obligations as they fall due. Such developments, it noted, may trigger a downgrade of Ghana’s rating.
Beyond domestic fiscal risks, S&P also pointed to potential external challenges. A decline in export earnings or unfavourable shifts in global trade conditions could negatively impact Ghana’s economic stability and credit profile.
The agency further warned about uncertainties surrounding the country’s ongoing debt restructuring efforts, particularly under the G20 Common Framework. Delays or disagreements among creditors, especially over how losses are shared, could complicate progress and weigh on Ghana’s rating outlook.
However, S&P indicated that there are positive prospects if the government maintains strong fiscal discipline. Sustained efforts to reduce deficits, lower debt servicing costs, and build foreign reserves could improve Ghana’s access to international financing and support a potential upgrade.
Despite these risks, S&P affirmed Ghana’s current sovereign credit ratings at ‘B-/B’ with a stable outlook. This reflects a balance between ongoing economic recovery efforts and lingering vulnerabilities such as high debt costs, exposure to commodity price fluctuations, and implementation risks.
Ghana has made notable progress since its 2022 default, including completing domestic debt restructuring in 2023 and restructuring $13.1 billion in Eurobonds in October 2024. The government has now addressed about 97% of the targeted debt.
The agency also acknowledged improvements in Ghana’s external sector, driven largely by strong gold prices. The country recorded a current account surplus of $9.35 billion in 2025, while gross international reserves climbed to a record $14.5 billion.
Overall, S&P’s assessment highlights that while Ghana’s economic recovery is gaining ground, sustaining reforms and navigating external risks will be critical to maintaining and improving its credit standing.