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Databank Projects 7.2% Cedi Depreciation in 2026, Sees Exchange Rate Closing at GH¢12.85

Databank Research has forecast a relatively stable performance for the Ghana cedi in 2026, projecting a moderate year-end depreciation of 7.20 per cent against the US dollar. In its 2026 Economic Outlook, the firm expects the local currency to settle around GH¢12.85 to the dollar by December, provided there are no significant systemic shocks to the economy.

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The projection takes into account anticipated foreign exchange demand from bulk importers, energy sector payments and upcoming Eurobond obligations. It is also based on a conservative estimate of monthly inflows of approximately GH¢750 million from GOLDBOD, alongside reforms underway in the small-scale mining sector.

According to the report, steady gold-backed inflows are expected to enhance the central bank’s ability to manage exchange rate pressures and limit volatility in the forex market. Externally, the outlook is supported by continued programme backing from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which are seen as reinforcing investor confidence and stabilising market sentiment.

Databank also highlighted broader global trends in reserve management, noting that some central banks are gradually reducing dependence on the US dollar while increasing gold holdings. China is identified as a leading force in this shift, particularly amid uncertainty over US policy direction.

The report further points to ongoing discussions about reclassifying gold from a Tier 1 asset to High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) status, a move that would allow it to serve as eligible collateral in repo financing. If implemented, this could signal a structural change in the global financial system by strengthening gold’s monetary role and potentially reducing dollar dominance.

However, Databank describes this scenario as low-probability in the near term, noting that deliberations within the BRICS grouping remain cautious due to concerns over volatility, custody and trust. Excluding such structural changes, the firm maintains a neutral-to-positive outlook for the cedi, supported by tighter foreign exchange regulations and reserve buffers it considers sufficient to withstand moderate demand pressures.